Anyway, the two water sources get intermingled. Typhoid abounds. The plaintiff catches his case in September: the contamination was discovered in October.
"A slam dunker!" right?
Defendants argue that typhoid can come from lots of sources, and the plaintiff hasn't shown that his typhoid came from their water. To what degree of certainty do we need to prove this? To a reasonable degree of certainty. It will generally be impossible to eliminate all possible alternative explanations.
Well, then, DID the plaintiff establish this with reasonable certainty? There are three persuasive pieces of evidence:
Note also that negligence here isn't an issue: the overdose was negligent. And the product itself was not harmful: only the overdosing.
There can be no direct evidence of causation, because there's no statistical evidence. Instead, we get expert testimony. What does expert testimony prove, in this context?
Daubert and Frye are very important. Is this evidence admissible? Does it tend to make one of the assertions of the case more or less likely to be true? This court says the Daubert criteria are not exclusive or dispositive: they're just suggestions. "Flexible." They really don't apply to these rare overexposure cases. So we'll allow these experts in.
Frye is another rule: a scientific theory needs to be generally accepted by the scientific community in order to be accepted. Also inapplicable to our case, and generally seen as more restrictive than Daubert. But really all Daubert does is put the decision in the judge's hand, when you think about it, instead of scientific consensus. That's not necessarily more plaintiff-friendly.
This is a federal case, applying CT law. So that requires but-for causation. How are we going to do that? Again, the court relaxes the standard. Amazingly, we rely on Martin v. Herzog to illustrate our principle by example: not having the lights on increased the probability of a smash up, and then there was a smash-up. it's up to the negligent party to rebut the presumption that the absence of lights caused the problem.
Me: so ultimately, the defendant should have rebutted the causation presumption at trial, rather than pinning hopes on objection to the introduction to the evidence.
And here, he can't prove that he lost a chance. There was negligence, but no evidence to support the assertion that had but for that negligence, the leg would have been saved. The primary injury was already in place: did the negligence exacerbate it?
If a plaintiff shows with 25% certainty that the leg was lost due to the defendant's negligence, what recovery should there be? None. This is different from losing a 25% chance of saving the leg. Or a 25% reduction in the chance of saving the leg. This can be very interestingly subtle. What must you demonstrate in order to recover?
In order to recover on a lost chance theory: you need to establish that the negligence caused the reduction in the chances of avoiding the harm. That the defendant's negligence reduced the probability of recovery.
Can you recover on a lost chance theory if your leg survives even though your chances were reduced? Maybe.
Both were negligent, but at most one harmed the guy.
All the same, the plaintiff can recover-- it would be unfair to prevent recovery and exonerate the negligent shooters just because the plaintiff can't be sure which one was the guilty one.
So the but-for test wouldn't work here: it would excuse defendants (same as in the Typhoid case). This is the doctrine of "Alternative Liability," and it's very rarely brought out: only when neither is more likely to be liable 50-50%.
What if there were a third party, so we had only 33.333% probability? Most courts back off (not all): for any one defendant, there's a 66.666% chance they weren't the cause.
In this case, there was a 100% chance that the result would be incorrect if we didn't shift things around this way.
If this is so rare, why spend a whole period talking about it? Because causation isn't such a big deal after all, and sometimes we can't prove it, but the concern of duty takes precedence. We fashion ways to get an acceptable outcome.
Note that this is different from Ybarra: there, someone was negligent, and we didn't know which one, but we presume all the others were not. Here, they're both negligent, but we don't know which caused the harm.
Unlike asbestos, DES manufacturers have never admitted negligence.
This market share allocation is different from what we saw in alternative liability (i.e., letting defendants figure out how to get stuff paid). Here we've got hundreds of wrongdoers, some no longer exist, and not all are before the court.
Sindell: a CA case where market share liability first gets used.
But what market? The regional market? Brown clarifies this. A given manufacturer can only be responsible for its market share, and this means that we'll never have 100% recovery, but we've got to do the best we can. And that's the national market because otherwise it's just too complicated.
Note that this is monumental: even if you can prove you didn't harm this specific plaintiff, you are still liable up to your national market share. So causation isn't even an element here?
Well, plaintiffs didn't get a great deal here either: they never recover the full amount.